The avalanche that hit math is coming for AI development
Dwarkesh Podcast

The avalanche that hit math is coming for AI development

B2Upper-intermediateNovember 13, 202644 min
  • Technology

If you asked me earlier this year how far away we are from superintelligence, I’d probably have said at least the better part of a decade. But over the last three months, from debating people on and off the podcast, I’ve updated my views a ton. Let me walk you through how my thinking has changed. If you want to read the written version (with footnotes and links) you can check it out here: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/rsi This is a public episode. If you would like...

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I've been debating people both on and off the podcast about this question.

, .

And I've come to the view that we're only a couple years away and possibly only a couple of months away from AIs that are as good as the best humans at AI research.

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0:00

If you had asked me earlier this year how far away we are from super intelligence, I'd probably have said at least a better part of a decade. But over the last three months, I've updated my views a ton. I've been debating people both on and off the podcast about this question. And of course, I've been watching the progress of AI on verifiable domains and thinking about what that implies for AI research itself.

0:21

And I've come to the view that we're only a couple years away and possibly only a couple of months away from AIs that are as good as the best humans at AI research. at AI research. And I've also come to believe that automating AI research will compress so much progress into a single year

0:36

that soon thereafter, so by 2030 and plausibly as early as next year, we'll have AIs that are at least as good as the best human experts in every field. I know this is a wild claim, and it's one that I myself

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